Chen Jianguang: new economic boom or overlooked in the statistics | New Economy | new industry | new formats


  Text / Sina Finance opinion leaders (micro-channel public number kopleader) columnist Chen Jianguang In recent years, China's rapid economic growth than expected new mobile payment, big data, cloud computing, "Internet +" and led to the Industrial Revolution and Product Innovation。 However, it is observed that the existing statistics tend to be applied to the traditional business model, and mostly legal entities (including enterprises and administrative units) and self-employed households as the main survey。 The omission of new industries, new formats, new business models and other statistics, is also likely to cause underestimation of GDP。
  In my view, the past two years, China and the new cycle of the old model in parallel, a new economic boom or overlooked in the statistics, the future should be corrected as soon as possible on the new economy and improvement of statistics to make the statistics more accurately reflect the economic operation, provide the basis for policy decisions。   Four important characteristics of the new economy Although the new economic term has been widely used, but its specific content is still no agreement。 Generally believed that major new economy refers to the current progress with the development of technology, changes in emerging new industries, new formats, new business models。 In my opinion, the new economy has the following main features quadruple。
  First, the Internet is the core infrastructure。 With the advances in technology, the Internet function has been far more than functional information exchange, cloud computing, big data, Internet banking, mobile payments are inseparable from the Internet as a carrier, the Internet has become a new economic era core infrastructure。
For example, mobile payments widely used online shopping, online barter, send and receive red envelopes gift or charitable contributions and other fields, they can not leave the support of the Internet。 Data from the Ministry of Industry show that as of June 2017, total number of nationwide mobile Internet users has reached 1.1 billion, a third-party penetration rate of mobile payment up to%。
  Second, a core data resources。
Unlike traditional resources such as oil, minerals, produced in the human society in various economic activities become more and more valuable data resources in a new period of economic。 By recording the personal habits and preferences, and can produce a strong economic value。 For example, by using the drops hit the cart software can analyze residents travel information, help intelligent transportation; and Big Data is not an island, once that is done to share various data banks, corporations and consumption, we can realize the full data of human behavior , and then identify the individual probability of default, provides support for personal financial loan pricing。
  The third is shared everywhere。
And similar data becomes a valuable resource, although sharing concept has long existed, but only in the earlier exists between acquaintances, did not produce more socio-economic value。 However, because of the Internet, the development of mobile technology, resource sharing significantly lower cost, a lot of idle resources can be fully mobilized by the so-called shared economic model, which greatly improves the efficiency of economic operation。
According to "China share economic Development Report 2017" shows that in 2016 our economy market share trade volume of about one trillion yuan, an increase of 103%。
Share the next few years will maintain rapid economic growth of around 40% annually, by 2020, to share economic transaction size to GDP ratio will reach 10% by 2025 rising to 20%。   Fourth, accelerate industrial integration already。
In the "Internet +" swept under the wave, traditional industries are seeking the depth of integration with the Internet technology, and try to explore new business models。
For example, the traditional home appliance industry, with the addition of iQIYI, millet and other Internet companies Alibaba, the integration with the Internet's rapid deepening TV is not just for TV viewing, but can freely connect smart devices within the family any browsing resources on the network, install any software needed, set more and more features home control center, computers and game consoles in one。   New economic contribution has become increasingly evident at the same time the new economy booming, not difficult to find, its leading role in the Chinese economy are rising。   First, the rapid growth of strategic emerging industries。 As of November 2017, high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing sector grew by% and% respectively, the growth rate and percentage points faster than the large-scale industrial。 Every year the first half of 2017, industry including energy-saving environmental protection industry, a new generation of information technology, bio-industry, high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy industry, new materials industry, new energy vehicles, including strategic emerging sector grew by% higher than the above-scale industrial percent。
  Second, the growth of new products, far ahead of traditional products。 The past five years, Chinese industrial scale for 20% growth。
2017 January to October, China's industrial robot production exceeded 100,000 units, up nearly 70 percent year is expected to China's industrial robot production will exceed 120,000 units, accounting for about one-third the size of global production。 2017 January to November, new energy automobile production increased by%; sport utility vehicles (SUV) production growth%。
January to October 2017, production increased battery%, far exceeding the growth rate of traditional products。
  Third, the rapid growth of the emerging service industries。 According to the findings of the National Bureau of Statistics service enterprises above designated size, the 2017 1–10 months, strategic and emerging services, producer services and technology services revenue grew%,% and%, respectively, faster than all large-scale services, and percentage points。
  Fourth, online retail sales hit record highs。 In mid-2017 the first three quarters, the country's online retail sales growth%。
Among them, physical goods online retail sales growth%; non-physical goods online retail sales growth%。 The total social retail sales were about 10% over the same period。 Ali Baba "double eleven" repeatedly break the record, in mid-2017 Lynx "double 11" turnover reached 168.2 billion yuan, the total payment items reach million transactions a day, all-day logistics order of one hundred million transactions covering the world's 225 countries and regions, a new high。
  New economic statistics still missing above statistics show that the new economy thriving, and enhance the role of the new economy on the Chinese economy in the larger context of traditional economic downward pressure, however, in my opinion, in view of the existing statistical system is largely built on the traditional format and underestimate mostly legal entities (including enterprises and administrative units) and self-employed households as the main survey, statistics on the new economy is still inadequate, its contribution to China's economy and GDP may have some degree of。   First, under the new economy, a lot of goods and services or to underestimate the value of。
As former National Bureau of Statistics deputy director Xu Xianchun suggested that currently, many sites offer plenty of free or very inexpensive services to residents, including information services (product information, tourist information, medical information), communication services, music services, whose main revenues from online advertising business, which makes the final consumption of residents about the service provided by the website are ignored or seriously underestimated。 For example, people anytime, anywhere via instant messaging software daily communication, trading services and the work of communication; navigation software, pedestrians automatically plan routes to avoid congestion; through video software, access to TV, watching a movie program。
However, it is not difficult to find the price of goods and services above are usually low or free of charge, due to the change in business model, in exchange for substantial advertising revenue, sponsorship and other value-added income through gathering traffic and word of mouth, this part is hard by the current statistics caliber reflect。
  Second, while the share of economic resources to idle circulation, which is also the boundaries between consumers and service providers of goods has become more blurred。 For example, when residents use the Internet platform commuting to provide "ride" service for others, or while on vacation travel will be rented out to others short his house, or when shopping the way to help others to run errands agency a few things, so be charged accordingly costs, then the residents can be both the consumer may also be a commodity or service provider, to provide its service cars and homes, but also the dual nature of both the consumer and investment goods, and how to measure this part of the added value for traditional statistical terms is no small challenge。   Third, the new economy is likely to promote changes in the job market data。
The most significant change is that the traditional workplace to work at the core of the employment relationship, are being changed to task-oriented new labor relations。 The rise of the Internet platform, improved commodity service providers and consumers of matching efficiency, shorten the distance between them, a variety of customized, personalized consumer upgrade also increased the demand for one service。
However, at the same time also makes the employment relationship does not depend on more restraint work units and locations, informal, part-time, temporary not fixed even more and more tasks, it will increase the employment and income of the difficulty of accurate statistical information。   Fourth, the Internet banking convenient financial services, but also created challenges for financial supervision and statistics。
First, the rapid development of Internet banking, making the few not to obtain a license, no registration or use of illegal business conduct regulatory arbitrage in the financial regulatory authorities have not been included in statistical monitoring and regulatory authorities, but in fact also provides financial services, there are alternatives to the traditional role of financial services。 Secondly, some Internet financial services and commercial banking closely linked, or through asset securitization will continue packaged distribution of various types of debt, and therefore a great difficulty for specific categories of penetration statistics。 Again, many interfaces between Internet companies and territorial finance financial regulatory authorities have not yet established, the collection and reporting of information does not flow channels。
In addition, the rate of innovation in the financial sector of the Internet fast, new products, new pattern is always endless, which is developing and updating of regulatory rules also made larger test。   In short, in my opinion, this year the new rapid economic development of China's economy has played a significant supporting role, but also to leverage the traditional infrastructure, real estate appear certain to fall at the same time, China's economic slowdown has played an important the hedging。
However, due to new industries, new formats, the development of new business models is difficult to fully reflect on the traditional statistics, statistics on how many areas the direction is not clear, it may cause underestimation of China's current GDP。
As soon as possible on the new economy and to improve the statistical correction to make statistics more accurately reflect the economic performance, provide the basis for policy decisions, particularly necessary for the Chinese economy is in the transition from the old and new terms。